PSG vs Bayern Munich
PSG vs Bayern Munich
Bayern Munich Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at 1.85 with Pinnacle - 3 units
Bayern have scored in 19 straight UCL games and look unstoppable right now. They’re averaging 3.17 goals per 90 in the competition this season and have only failed to score 2+ in one game, away to Arsenal back in November (3-1 loss). They didn’t have Luis Díaz or Musiala for that one, both available here.
Last round they put 6 past Real Madrid over two legs and racked up 2.00+ xG in both games.
Had Neuer not had a poor showing in the 2nd leg and Bayern not wasted an incredible amount of chances in the 1st (xG doesn’t do it justice), Real Madrid could have been handed a total humiliation similar to what we saw Bayern do to Barca during their UCL run during Covid.
Bayern ran riot over PSG when these two met in the league phase. It was only Luis Díaz’s red card that made the game look respectable on paper for PSG, and they still lost.
Bayern lost the previous meeting in the CWC, but worth noting again just how well they did decimating PSG’s build-up play in that one too.
Bayern also have the set-piece advantage, ranked 2nd in the UCL for set-piece xG and with 18 set-piece goals domestically. PSG are a smaller and not the most physical team in the world, so this is another clean path to goal.
The narrative has been that PSG were sluggish in the 1st half of the season because of CWC and UCL hangover but are now peaking. I just posted this on X, and you can clearly see there’s not much difference between the 1st and 2nd half of the season.
PSG are also conceding on average about 0.33 more goals per 90 in the UCL compared to last season.
Musiala only has about 800 mins in all comps this season but we can already see the impact, with Bayern averaging 3.81 goals per 90 with him on the pitch. He’s been reintroduced slowly with limited minutes per game, but even still he has 8 goal contributions in his last 9 appearances.
Bayern may be leaking goals domestically but this is little concern right now. The league has been won and they’re rotating heavily and dropping intensity.