Monday - Ivory Coast vs Gambia
Gambia +1.5 Asian Handicap at 1.83 with Bet365 - 2 units
This line feels a bit disrespectful to Gambia, who are far more competitive than their recent results might suggest.
Let’s start with Ivory Coast (CIV). On paper, they’ve been dominant in qualifying: 4 wins from 5, 13 goals scored, none conceded. But take a closer look and you’ll see 9 of those goals came against Seychelles, the group’s clear whipping boys.
CIV will also be far from full strength for this match. They’re missing several key players, including Seko Fofana, Amad Diallo, Jeremie Boga, Eric Bailly, Odilon Kossounou, and Kouame, who scored in the last meeting between these sides.
Since their AFCON triumph, CIV have only covered this -1.5 spread in 4 of 11 matches. Two of those came against Chad, one of the weakest teams in world football, and the others were against Sierra Leone (ranked 129th) and Zambia.
Gambia, meanwhile, have been rock solid under current manager Johnny McKinstry. They've covered this +1.5 line in all 9 games under his leadership. Of those, they lost just three times, and even those were narrow, unfortunate defeats:
Against Comoros, in a match they dominated (3.91-1.26xG)
Against Tunisia, where it was a closely fought game that could have gone either way. (1.18-0.81xG in Gambia’s favour)
Against Gabon, where they conceded 3 goals from just 1.11 xG.
Offensively, Gambia have been potent during qualifying, boasting one of the best attacking records. They also have two dangerous wide threats in Musa Barrow and Yankuba Minteh, both capable of causing serious problems for this understrength Ivorian backline.