Bournemouth vs Man Utd
Bournemouth vs Man Utd
Bournemouth +0.25 Asian Handicap at 2.05 - 1 unit
Bournemouth Over 1.5 Team Total Goals at 2.36 - 1 unit
My latest model makes United around 2.3 to win this game, so I’m happy to oppose them at the current lines
This feels like a coin flip to me. Bournemouth will generate plenty of chances on turnovers and all the pressure sits with United, who are not yet over the line in securing UCL football for next season. The Cherries have precisely nothing to lose here and will fancy their chances against a team they tend to match up very well with
United’s away record against middle-third Premier League teams is unremarkable - won just 3 of 10 with 15 scored and 16 conceded
In contrast, Bournemouth have matched up well with the top 6, going undefeated in 7 of their last 10 against teams positioned in the top 6 with 15 scored and 17 conceded
Iraola has never lost a game against Man United and his Bournemouth side have been prolific in these meetings - 13 goals scored across 5 games
Since their 4-1 win over Wolves in early December, United have won just 2 road games. They beat Arsenal scoring three off 0.85 xG and beat Everton 1-0 in what was a pretty close match until Sesko’s late goal
Worth noting that United are actually generating a lower xG per match under Carrick (1.74 per 90) than they were under Amorim (1.98 per 90) - the improved results have come from defensive solidity rather than attacking output
Team news favours Bournemouth. Tyler Adams is the only automatic starter missing, while United are light defensively - De Ligt is still out alongside Martinez and Dorgu, with Mazraoui also a doubt
1 unit on each